Lead: In the past two days, the average price of paperboard has reached 4,000 yuan. The base paper and waste paper continue to fall at a speed of 50-100 per day. The paper is down, the paper is stopped or the paper is stopped, and the waste is more powerful. The cardboard line is directly shut down. Everything seems to confirm that the market continues to slump, and there is nothing without an order.
The original paper fell only in the part that rose this year. The national waste is maintained at 2000-2400.
Base paper:
The continued decline in paper prices directly affects the paper mill's profit margin in the second half of the year, so why should the paper mills fall? In addition to the decline in demand, sales are not smooth, and more importantly, destocking.
There are two means of destocking, one is to cut prices, to stimulate downstream to reduce the number of existing in-stores through price reduction; the other is to stop production, and to suspend production can directly reduce the increase in inventory while reducing the pressure on sales, so price cuts, production stops, go The ultimate in inventory is to keep profits.
When it falls to the present, compared with the price at the beginning of the year, whether it is a real decline or a false fall, the data is very clear. The drop is only the part that slowly rises this year. At the end of the year, it returns to the origin of the beginning of the year. The 18-year price of the downturn has not actually fallen!
Waste paper:
From the high level of 3800 to the current low of 1800-2000, the overall real value of the waste paper has not deviated greatly. The reason why the current waste paper price is very bad is defined relative to the high position.
It is very unreasonable for the original waste and external waste to be nearly 1000 yuan. Last year, part of this year's national waste price speculation is too heavy. Now it is only the return of value, according to the external waste reference price, domestic recycling cost, paper mill cost. Reasonable positioning, domestic waste paper maintained at 2000-2400 is a reasonable range price.
The price of cardboard is basically a little higher than the profit and loss line, and the pressure on profitability and profitability is very high.
When the waste paper falls and the original paper falls, then the falling price of the cardboard will not fall.
Looking at the overall price of cardboard this year, this year's cardboard is actually falling, as part of the reason is the cost of the original paper caused by the decline in the price of the original paper, and the biggest factor is the industry competition caused by the reduction of downstream demand. Falling prices.
In the case of a cardboard order that is not enough, the price is down on the one hand in order to keep part of the existing market share in order to prevent the loss of orders.
Part of the reason is that some cardboard line companies have optimistically estimated the 18-year market situation in the 17-year situation, and the capacity expansion competition caused by the rapid expansion of the assembly line. The paperboard has a processing fee of 0.6-1.00 square meters from 17 years. Up to now, the processing fee of 0.2-0.5, the price drop of this part is really visible.
Measuring the profit of the paperboard factory is not the surface price but the intrinsic processing fee. From here, it can be seen that the price of cardboard is basically slightly higher than the profit and loss line, and the pressure on profitability and profitability is very high.
For the individual secondary factories to choose to stop the production in order to stop losses, it is very helpless and decisive, and it is better to stop production than to lose production.
The market has never been a good market and there will be no bad market. There is a time course between the peaks and valleys. Besides, the basic strategy in the industry next year is to cut the peaks and fill the valley and move toward stable operation.
The current market can be said to be the worst time since the beginning of September 16th. The price war is of little significance.
Prepare to go downhill when the market is at its best, and prepare to climb when the market is at its worst.
The current market can be said to be the worst time since the beginning of September 16th. It is difficult to climb quickly when the price inertia is falling all the way. It is foreseeable that the whole November will continue to bottom out, and part of it will continue to go. On the other hand, inventory is also a saving power for subsequent recovery. This kind of market is expected to slowly pick up at the beginning of the next month after the end of the month, and return to a reasonable range in the next month.
Under this general judgment, the secondary plant needs to consider not the price recovery but how to ensure the smoothness of the order in the state of stable price next year. It is of little significance to continue to use the price war.
The third-tier factory may be more concerned about the possibility that the environmental protection will not be relaxed when the price is stable next year, the possibility of renewal of the rent continues to rise, and whether the customer orders will continue to turn to the secondary plant.
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